A new, highly contagious strain of the coronavirus was identified in Southern California on Wednesday, marking a troubling discovery that came as the state surpassed 25,000 deaths in the pandemic and braced for another surge of post-holiday cases.
The coronavirus variant, known as “B117” and first found in the United Kingdom, is believed to be up to 70% more transmissible than earlier strains.
The first case in the U.S. was found in Colorado on Tuesday, but public health officials believe it’s probably been circulating undetected in the country for some time.
“Even though it’s only been identified now, I suspect it’s been around at least since September,” said John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley.
The California case was identified in a patient in San Diego County who had no known travel history, meaning the person was exposed to the strain in the community. Public health officials are investigating the case.
“I’m not surprised you have a case, and likely more cases,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, in a virtual meeting with Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday afternoon during which the California case was announced. “I don’t think that Californians should feel that this is something odd. This is something that’s expected.”
Still, it was discouraging news as the most populous parts of the state, including all of Southern California, reported their 13th straight day of being over capacity in intensive care beds. Many facilities are running way over capacity, doubling up patients in rooms and caring for very ill people in converted gift shops and waiting areas.
In the Bay Area, intensive care availability took another precipitous dive on Wednesday, dropping to 7.5% and offering a grim reminder that even as coronavirus cases appear to level off across the region, the pressure on hospitals remains intense. The hospital situation will likely worsen due to post-Christmas and New Year’s Eve spikes in cases.
Deaths continue to climb, as well. The state reported a new daily record of 442 deaths on Tuesday. December has been the deadliest month in the pandemic so far, with nearly four times as many deaths from COVID-19 as reported in November.
“People are seeing slight reductions in overall cases, but that is not what we see statewide,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of California Health and Human Services, in a news briefing Wednesday. Hospitals in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley “will need to prepare for additional patients coming from Hanukkah and Christmas, and ... what we hope is much lower degree of transmission over the New Year’s holiday.
“Those hospitals are in a tough spot at the moment,” he said.
New virus strain
The new coronavirus variant could further hamper control of the state surge in cases because it is so much more infectious, public health experts said. However, there is no evidence that it causes more serious disease.
“There’s absolutely no evidence to date that it causes more serious illness,” Swartzberg said. “That doesn’t mean we won’t find evidence. But I don’t think it’s going to happen because we would have noticed it.”
The fact that the Colorado case was reported in a man who had no travel history helps confirm the theory that “this variant has been transmitting from person to person in the United States,” according to Dr. Henry Walke, CDC incident manager.
While it does not appear to cause more severe illness, he said, the variant is more contagious, potentially putting “even more strain on our heavily burdened health care systems.”
Swartzberg said it is possible the undetected strain is one of the major contributing factors behind the current surge of cases in California.
“Why did things start to ramp up in October?” he said. “It does raise the question. Could this new strain be another reason why this exploded?”
Cases and deaths
The rate of new cases per 100,000 residents has dropped off across the state and in the Bay Area this week, hovering just under 100 for California and at about 50 for the Bay Area.
For the state, that’s still far above the national average of about 60 cases per 100,000 residents a day. But it’s an improvement from last week, when California was averaging about 115 cases per 100,000 residents a day.
California reported a new record of 66,811 cases on Monday, but much of that was due to lags in reporting over Christmas. Indeed, much of the case reporting this week is likely less precise than usual due to counties slowing down operations between Christmas and New Year’s.
Statewide, 25,033 people have died of COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic, including 2,478 in the Bay Area. Despite the large numbers of deaths reported this month, California still has one of the lower death rates in the country: about 64 deaths per 100,000 residents since the pandemic began, compared to a national average of about 100 deaths per 100,000.
Hospitals and intensive care
Statewide ICU availability remained at 0% on Wednesday for the sixth straight day.
There are still open ICU beds in the state, but the California Department of Public Health uses a complex algorithm to determine capacity, based in part on the number of COVID-19 patients hospitalized. That algorithm, combined with so many hospitals in hard-hit parts of the state being far over capacity, means the state’s net availability is zero.
ICU availability in the Bay Area dropped sharply overnight, from 10.4% on Tuesday to 7.5%. Greater Sacramento had about 17.4% ICU availability and the sparsely populated Northern California region had 31.5% availability.
About 2,050 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 in the Bay Area as of Tuesday — the first time that number has passed 2,000 since the pandemic began, and more than double the peak of the summer surge. About 20,612 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 statewide.
Things could get worse as the state sees an uptick in cases resulting from travel and gatherings over Christmas and New Year’s Eve.
“While things are bad now, they are going to get really, really worse in January,” Swartzberg said. “It’s an easy prediction to make. We know travel is like throwing gasoline on the fire. We saw what happened in Thanksgiving. January is going to be hell.”
Erin Allday and Aidin Vaziri are San Francisco Chronicle staff writers. Email: eallday@sfchronicle.com, avaziri@sfcrhronicle.com Twitter: @erinallday, @SFMusic
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