Methodology
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 registered voters nationwide was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 9 to 12, 2022. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.0 percentage points for registered voters and +/- 4.1 percentage points for the likely electorate.
Sample
The survey is a response-rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.
First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each strata. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a strata’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.
Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state (as a random effect), telephone number quality, age, race, turnout and metropolitan status. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records divided by the national sum of the weights.
Fielding
The sample was stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, IPOR at the University of Roanoke, and the PORL at the University of North Florida. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 75 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.
The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents initially contacted by English-speakers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 6 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish.
Weighting
The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package. The registered and likely voter weights were calculated separately to account for the differences between registered voters and the likely electorate and to incorporate both modeled vote history data and respondent’s self-reported intention to vote. Survey weights were trimmed at the 99th percentile.
First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by strata. For the likely electorate, the first-stage weight also incorporated the respondent’s modeled intention to vote, based on voter file data.
Second, the sample was weighted to match voter-file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters. The sample was also weighted to match census-based estimates for the educational attainment of registered voters and the likely electorate.
Third, the sample was weighted to match the characteristics of the likely electorate. The estimates for the characteristics of the likely electorate were based on multiple models. First, a model estimated the likely turnout by state, based on recent turnout and the competitiveness of the midterm race. Second, an individual-level model of turnout in 2010, 2018 and 2021 was used to estimate the probability that registrants would participate in the midterm election as a function of their demographic and political characteristics. Finally, the individual-level estimates were adjusted to match the expected turnout by state.
Fourth, self-reported vote intention was incorporated into the estimate of a respondent’s likelihood to vote. That was based on a model of validated turnout in Times/Siena surveys since 2016 as a function of self-reported vote intention and the pre-survey modeled turnout probability, including an adjustment for the higher turnout of survey respondents than nonrespondents.
Finally, the final weight for the likely electorate was equal to the initial likely electorate weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability incorporating self-reported vote intention divided by the initial modeled turnout probability.
Parameters
The following voter-file-based targets were used to weight the sample to match the characteristics of registered voters and the likely electorate:
• Party (NYT classifications based on L2 data and, in states without party registration or primary vote history, a model of partisanship based on previous Times/Siena polls)
• Age (self-reported age or voter file age if the respondent refuses)
• Gender (self-reported gender or voter file gender if the respondent refuses)
• Marital status (L2 model)
• Homeownership (L2 model)
• Metropolitan area (2013 National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)
• Region (Census Bureau definition, except Maryland, Delaware and Washington, D.C., reclassified as Northeast)
• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)
• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)
The following census-based targets were used to weight the sample to match the characteristics of registered voters and the likely electorate:
• Educational attainment (NYT model based on A.C.S. and C.P.S. data)
The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect is 1.31 for registered voters and 1.38 for the likely electorate.
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