New York, Jan. 4 (CNA) A potential crisis across the Taiwan Strait was rated as a "Tier 1 contingency" in a report by the United States Council on Foreign Relations released Thursday for the fourth straight year.
The Preventive Priorities Survey 2024 report stated that "intensified economic and military pressure by China towards Taiwan, especially around the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election, precipitates a severe cross-strait crisis involving the United States and other countries in the region."
A cross-strait crisis was rated as moderate likelihood and high impact, the survey added. It first entered the ranking as a Tier 2 contingency in 2019, and has been rated as a Tier 1 contingency since 2021.
In addition to Taiwan Strait and South China Sea tensions, the growing risk of armed conflict with Russia is concerning, according to the survey.
Meanwhile, with violent conflicts erupting or intensifying in many regions, notably in Israel and Palestine, as well as in Sudan, the Sahel, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the trend of declining armed conflict around the world since the end of the Cold War is reversing, it stated.
The Preventive Priorities Survey, first released in 2008, evaluates ongoing and potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming year and their potential impact on U.S. interests. There are three tiers in total, with those rated Tier 1 being the most serious.
Also ranked as a Tier 1 contingency, the survey predicted that growing political polarization in the U.S., in terms of the 2024 presidential election, could lead to acts of domestic terrorism and political violence.
This marks the first time in 16 years that a U.S. presidential election has been a leading concern in the country, with the election being rated as a high-likelihood, high-impact contingency, according to the survey.
The protracted Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza igniting a wider regional conflict, and a surge in migration to the southwest border of the U.S. driven by violence, corruption, and economic hardship in Mexico and Central America were also rated as high-likelihood, high-impact contingencies in the Tier 1 ranking.
Other contingencies in the tier included an escalation of the war in Ukraine, a direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel, a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure, and an acute security crisis in Northeast Asia triggered by North Korea's testing of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles.
The survey was sent to more than 15,000 U.S. government officials, foreign policy experts and academics, in November 2023, with around 550 responding. They were asked to estimate the likelihood of each contingency and its potential impact on U.S. interests.
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January 05, 2024 at 11:21AM
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Cross-strait crisis rated as Tier 1 contingency in U.S. report - Focus Taiwan
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